Tar Heel Born, Tar Heel Bred

Perspective On This Season

2006-03-22T13:54:00.000-08:00

Eddy Landreth provides some perspective on this season.

I agree with everything he says. Here are the highlights.

So, once this team can put some distance between Sunday's disappointment, some indisputable facts should surface.

1) Almost any other team in the country would have collapsed under the weight of losing its top seven scorers from a year ago while carrying the flag of being the defending national champion.

2) Rather than collapse, the Tar Heels thrived.

3) This group did not win a national championship, but it did add the next level to the foundation of Williams' program.

4) The freshmen on this team turned out to be superior ballplayers to what many people expected.

5) Hansbrough is one of the finest collegiate players to wear Carolina blue.

Duke finished first in the regular season, won the ACC Tournament and has advanced further in the NCAA Tournament than UNC did, all expected results from a team with two first-team All-Americans and a bench full of McDonald's All-Americans.

But Williams took his freshmen and unlikely veterans and defeated the Blue Devils in Durham on Senior Night. UNC should have beaten Duke twice, but inexperience got the better of the Heels in Chapel Hill.

What this season has shown is the rivalry is level again. From here on, Williams and the Tar Heels will look at Duke eye-to-eye and not blink. Carolina hasn't been able to truly say that since 1998.

Never Satisfied, Always Successful

2006-03-22T06:53:00.000-08:00

Roy Williams recognizes the accomplishments of this team, but that loss to George Mason really stung. Is there anything better than having a coach who is never satisfied?

"...that’s the toughest thing about coaching – the highs don’t come anywhere close to how low the lows are. And it sticks with you so, so long. We won the national championship and 24 hours later I was on the road recruiting. And this loss will stick with me for a long time."

The quality of never being satisfied is why Roy was recognized as The United States Basketball Writers Association's coach of the year the year after he won a National Championship.

Looking Back On A Fantastic Season

2006-03-20T06:35:00.000-08:00

Rather than recapping a performance that was about as bad as any other all season I would rather look back on some of the bright spots from the season. This team did so many suprisingly fantastic things it is hard to list them all, but I'll give it my best shot:

David Noel hitting a game winning three in our 1st contest of the season. Paving the way to a season where we would see one of the all time best Tar Heel leaders.
The comeback against Illinois. Although we came up short in that one, that is the first time this year I truly thought we could do something special.
The win at Rupp Arena. We got to see the balanced attack this team had to offer and we got to see the Reyshawn Terry that UNC fans have been waiting 2 years to see.
Against UNC Asheville Tyler Hansbrough had 8 steals tying a Smith Center record. You knew this guy was special.
In this young team's first ACC performance we got a huge second half from Frasor and proved that we were here to compete...even against the teams in the "top" of the league like State.
Then against Duke on February 7 we got to see this team's true heart. Despite being down 17 in the second half UNC came back with the help of the blue team to give Tar Heel fans tremendous hope. Although the Heels fell short in the end, the hope was planted for the rest of the season.
One week later against Georgia Tech there was Hansbrough breaking all types of records...scoring 40 in an amazing comeback win against the Jackets.
Then the utter domination that Carolina displayed going into Raleigh and beating State by 24 to help lock up second place in the league.
Finally, there was the incredible performance where Roy Williams led UNC into Cameron and knocked off #1 Duke on Redick and William's senior night. Hansbrough showed every reason he is the Freshman of the Year in that game.

Every win after that was gravy. As much as I hoped (and thought) we could make a national championship run, it wasn't in the cards. Now I will just relish in the fact that this team made this one of my favorite seasons of all time.

Other highlights: Miller's consistent effort and performance, Thomas' improvement, Roy's ACC coach of the year, Hansbrough's lock on freshman of the year nationally, a 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, another 20 win season, finishing 2nd in the league, etc.....

Better Matchup With George Mason

2006-03-19T04:48:00.000-08:00

Brett Friedlander of Fayetteville Online thinks UNC got a nice matchup.

As it turns out, the 11th-seeded Patriots of the Colonial Athletic Association may actually have done UNC a favor by knocking off the sixth-seeded Spartans.

But not for the obvious reason that it gives the Tar Heels what figures to be a clear shot to the Sweet 16 in Washington, D.C., and whatever else lies beyond.

In Michigan State, the Tar Heels would have had to face a physical, experienced team that looks and plays a lot like Boston College - the one opponent with which they had trouble matching up against this year.

I agree that MSU could have posed a tough matchup, but would have loved to see the rematch.

As a result, UNC will now face a George Mason team that plays an uptempo, athletic style much more to its liking. At the same time, the Tar Heels have to be careful not to like their situation so much that they forget the lessons they learned in their debut against Murray State.

The Log 5/Pythagorean winning percentage method of predicting odds agrees that the Patriots are a better matchup...but barely. UNC has 71.54% chance of beating George Mason and would have had 71.07% chance against MSU.

George Mason: Got Questions? Here Are Answers.

2006-03-18T17:43:00.000-08:00

Link for detailed breakdown of the Tar Heels matchup with George Mason.

ESPN's take:
The Patriots were one of the most interesting at-large cases in this year's event. They were co-champs of the CAA, the No. 10-ranked conference, and have a win over MVC champ Wichita State in their pocket as part of a very strong non-conference schedule. That said, they lost twice to CAA rival Hofstra in the last 10 days of the season and will be without suspended guard Tony Skinn for their first round game. Even without Skinn, this team has four other double-digit scorers and is one of the stingiest defensive teams in the nation -- one that could be even tougher with the additional minutes defensive stopper Gabe Norwood will receive in Skinn's place. Every year, there is a team (like UAB last season) that people are surprised was included, and more often than not, that team performs very well in its opening-round game.

Inside Carolina
The Patriots are ranked among the nation's best in a couple defensive categories. They entered the NCAA Tournament at 9th in the nation in field-goal percentage defense and 13th in scoring defense. In addition, GMU is one of the country's best shooting teams, ranked No. 11 in field goal percentage (48.7%).

I Hate Him To This Day

2006-03-18T17:38:00.000-08:00

From Chip Alexander on the News and Observer's Blog:

Texas coach Rick Barnes is a native of Lenoir who grew up watching ACC basketball. Asked Saturday if it was true he had been an N.C. State fan, Barnes wouldn't quite own up to it."I was like any kid growing up in the late '50s and early '60s in that state," he said. "Whatever team that seemed to be doing well, whether it was the Wake teams early, Duke, Carolina, I was just a big Atlantic Coast Conference fan."So at one point, he could be classified a Tar Heel fan? Barnes smiled."At one point," he said, chuckling. "That was a long time ago."Barnes is best remembered for challenging former UNC coach Dean Smith at the 1995 ACC Tournament. Barnes, then the Clemson coach, went face-to-face with Smith, angry that Smith had said something to one of the Clemson players.

On that note here is a random anti-Barnes link.

Update: Sunday's Game Time (2:20 pm)

2006-03-18T17:32:00.000-08:00

I errantly posted earlier based on CBS's early schedule.

UNC will play George Mason at 2:20pm on Sunday.

D.C. Region Update #3

2006-03-18T17:17:00.000-08:00

Computer problems, thus the belated update and lack of posts. So here are last nights and today's updates to the Washington D.C. region.

Side note...good games this afternoon since the first two.

~~Murray St.~~ (Thank God)
~~Michigan St.~~ (Figured they would lose, but the Final 4 rematch would have been interesting)
George Mason
Witchita St. (They await if we win)
~~Seton Hall~~
~~Winthrop~~
~~Tennessee~~ (Felt that loss coming)
Connecticut (They have been suspect the last couple of games...waiting for them to win by 40)
~~Albany~~ (Could have been the first)
Kentucky (Enjoy that win...it's your last)
~~UAB~~
Washington (I am sorry I had you out early in one bracket)
Utah St.
Illinois
Air Force

UNC 69, Murray St. 65 - Got The Job Done

2006-03-18T05:15:00.000-08:00

UNC got the job done, but it sure wasn't a pretty one. In the opening minutes I had the feeling that the Tar Heels were going to run away with it. The pressure defense seemed to be there, Reyshawn smoothed a three pointer, the pace of play seemed to favor UNC, and Miller even found a couple of open spots for threes...the problem was he didn't hit either of those shots. I felt as if he had hit those bombs the momentum would have built and they could have started the buses.

That didn't happen of course and the Tar Heels had a serious test. Fortunately, they passed.

The "scared" freshmen saved the day:

Scoring 52 of UNC's 69 points
Scoring the last 29 points of the game for the Tar Heels
Carrying the team (Hansbrough - 24 pts, 9 rbds)
Providing much needed scoring (Danny Green - 15 pts in 14 minutes)
Icing it. Marcus Ginyard's clutch free throws with 16 seconds left
Keeping it going. (Frasor - 9 pts and key three with just under 3 minutes to go)

Congrats To Roy's 17th Staight

2006-03-17T20:51:00.000-08:00

Congratulations to Roy Williams!

He tied Dean Smith for 17 consecutive years with a first round win in the NCAA tournament. Roy had to stress more for this one than he did for many of the others...but regardless the Heels are on to the round of 32.

I'll come back with more tomorrow morning...for now I just feel lucky to come out with a win.

Go Heels!

Roy Is Going For The Record Books Tonight

2006-03-17T09:46:00.000-08:00

With a win tonight, Roy Williams will tie the legend, Dean Smith, for the most consecutive years (17) with at least one NCAA tournament victory.

Here are Roy's past 16 first round wins. Impressive!
2004-05, Oakland, 96-68
2003-04, Air Force, 63-52
2002-03, Utah St., 64-61
2001-02, Holy Cross, 70-59
2000-01, Cal St. Northridge, 99-75
1999-00, DePaul, 81-77
1998-99, Evansville, 95-74
1997-98, Prarie View, 110-52
1996-97, Jackson St., 78-64
1995-96, South Carolina St., 92-54
1994-95, Colgate, 82-68
1993-94, Tenn.-Chtanooga, 102-73
1992-93, Ball St., 94-72
1991-92, Howard, 100-67
1990-91, New Orleans, 54-49
1989-90, Robert Morris, 79-71

Here are a few more "Tournament Tidbits."

Uhh!!!

2006-03-17T08:36:00.000-08:00

Can't wait to see a few of these this weekend.

Here are a couple of articles on UNC's practice yesterday which turned into a slam session. Adam Lucas comments on it in his Dayton Notebook and Robbi Pickeral does on the N&O's blog.

Reyshawn Terry appeared to have leapt farther above the rim than any of his teammates.

More Info On The Murray St. Racers

2006-03-17T08:24:00.000-08:00

What you need to know about the Racers.

Coaching pedigree: Third-year coach Mick Cronin, Ohio Valley Conference Coach of the Year, has been an assistant at power programs Cincinnati and Louisville, serving under Bob Huggins and Rick Pitino. The Racers won the OVC Tournament in Cronin's first season and lost to Illinois in Columbus, Ohio.

The Heels face coaches better than this every night in the ACC...except for maybe when they play Wake.

Experience: Murray relies on five seniors, two juniors, a sophomore and a freshman for most of its minutes. Junior forward Shawn Witherspoon was a reserve on the NCAA team two years ago and was the lone Racer on the 2006 All-OVC first team.

Definitely an experienced team. But it hasn't always been good experience: Murray has been in 11 of the last 19 NCAA tourneys (six of the last 10) and has won once.

Statistic that might help: The Racers are 18-3 when they hold opponents to 45 percent or less from the field, and they're 10-2 when they hold foes to fewer than 60 points.

UNC averages 48.2% from the field and 80.4 points.

The "What If?" Bracket

2006-03-17T07:17:00.000-08:00

The "What If?" bracket. No...not "what if" I picked Montana instead of Nevada..."what if" recruits actually showed up in school and stayed 4 years? What would this NCAA Tournament look like? Note: I saw this "what if" bracket referenced on Heelsblog.com today and had to check it out. His post has some interesting stuff in addition to this "what if" bracket mention.

Based ont he "what if" scenario here is what UNC would add to this year's roster:
Dwight Howard ('08), J.R. Smith ('08), Marvin Williams ('08) Sean May ('06) Raymond Felton ('06) Rashad McCants ('06).

Obviously that puts UNC as a #1 seed...and in my opinion the best team in the country. Especially if you throw in a "what if JamesOn Curry wasn't dealing" clause. For some reason I don't remember Dwight Howard being in the picture ever...but I'll take him on this fantasy squad.

Other one seeds were:
Duke: Adds: Luol Deng ('07), Shaun Livingston ('08) Shavlik Randolph ('06)
Memphis: Adds: Kendrick Perkins ('07), Amare Stoudemire ('06) Sean Banks ('07) Ricky Sanchez ('09)
Connecticut: Adds: Charlie Villanueva ('07) Andrew Bynum ('09)

D.C. Region Update #2

2006-03-17T06:10:00.000-08:00

A quarter of the teams are headed home, a quarter of the teams are moving on.

Murray St.
Michigan St.
George Mason
Witchita St.
~~Seton Hall~~
~~Winthrop~~
Tennessee (Big time shot...they'll be done in the next round by a mid-major nonetheless)
Connecticut
Albany
Kentucky
UAB
Washington (Too late...didn't see it)
~~Utah St.~~
Illinois (Struggled a little against Air Forces unique offense, but pulled it out as expected)
~~Air Force~~

D.C. Region Update #1

2006-03-16T11:38:00.000-08:00

Scratch one potential opponent in the D.C. region off the list.

Murray St.
Michigan St.
George Mason
Witchita St. (Moves on to 2nd round)
~~Seton Hall~~ (Not a good start for the Big East)
Winthrop
Tennessee
Connecticut
Albany
Kentucky
UAB
Washington
Utah St.
Illinois
Air Force

Cuse We Can

2006-03-16T09:53:00.000-08:00

Who was the last team to win the NCAA tournament as a 3 seed? It was Syracuse in the 2003.

There are a lot of similarities between the ’03 Syracuse team and this year’s Tar Heel squad, which gives me a lot of reason for hope that UNC can get it done in 2006.

What do these two teams share in common? Well, to name a few…

#1 Freshman Phenoms:
Most notably the thing that makes these teams similar is that they are led in production by freshmen studs. Both Carmelo Anthony in 2003 and Tyler Hansbrough in 2006 were named by The Sporting News as Freshman of the Year. In addition, they both made The Sporting News’ First Team All American.

Both freshmen led their teams in scoring and rebounding.
22pts, 10rbs – Anthony
19pts, 9rbs- Hansbrough

For UNC to make their run they’ll need Hansbrough to show up in the tournament like Anthony did several years ago.

#2 Balanced Attacks:
Although both the 2003 Syracuse team and the current Heels squad were both centered around star rookies, both teams demonstrate tremendous balance that is crucial for making a 6 game run.

UNC has 9 players that average double digit minutes, while Syracuse had 8. However, their 9th guy averaged 8.4 minutes per on the season. Also, Syracuse had 4 guys average over 9 pts per game. UNC has 3 that average double digits, but 5 players with over 7 pt averages.

UNC will need to utilize their depth to neutralize individual lapses and to keep the pressure defense turned up for the entire tournament.

#3 Threats From Deep:
UNC has many players that can hurt you from downtown, but the primary assassin is Wes Miller shooting 46% from three on the year. Syracuse in turn, had McNamara who led the Orangemen with 35.7%, but made over 85 threes on the season. And while his percentage wasn’t exceptional, we all know McNamara dropped timely threes throughout the tournament.

UNC actually has an edge over Syracuse with three players shooting over 39% from three (not including Tyler). If the Tar Heels continue to knock down shots from the perimeter they will be hard to control with Hansbrough controlling the post.

Sources:
UNC Stats
Syracuse Stats

I Always Love a Good Conspiracy Or Two

2006-03-16T07:58:00.000-08:00

K denies keeping UNC out of Greensboro

Backlash may have hit ACC

Back To Low Expectations (From National Media At Least)

2006-03-16T06:24:00.000-08:00

It's amazing how things can change so quickly with the national sports media. A little over 1.5 weeks ago we beat #1 Duke in Cameron and the world was in love with UNC. Andy Katz and media across the nation began jumping on the bandwagon after UNC impressively locked up 2nd place in the ACC. Things changed 6 days later when UNC lost a heartbreaker to Boston College. Not that BC didn't look great against the Tar Heels (twice nonetheless), but I am amazed at how quickly everyone hasn't forgotten UNC's solid team play. Instead, BC is the new media darling.

Of the 7 ESPN experts, 4 picked BC for the Final Four. None of them picked UNC.

On CBS.sportsline.com their experts had the same trend. Of the 5 experts, 2 picked BC in their Final Four, while 0 picked UNC. In addition, 3 of the 5 had UNC going out in the 2nd round.

The point is...UNC is back to somewhat low expecations from a national perspective. All season the Tar Heels have proven the naysayers wrong. Here's to doing it again!

NCAA Tournament TV Schedule

2006-03-15T12:44:00.000-08:00

As you know by now, the Heels tip-off their tournament at 9:40 pm on Friday.

If all goes to plan they will then play on Sunday (March 19) at 4:50 pm.

For the complete schedule of games for the first 2 rounds click here.

Taking Them, But Not Dishing Them Out

2006-03-15T09:38:00.000-08:00

There has been a lot of talk this season about Hansbrough and his propensity for getting to the free throw line. To back that up here are some stats:

Tyler is 13th in the country with a free throw rate of 75.5%. This measures a player’s ability to get the line using the number of free throws shot per 100 field goal attempts. That coupled with his 73.7% FT shooting has made him extremely efficient and 2nd in the league in scoring.
Tyler is 8th in the country in free throws attempted (tied with Redick and right behind Shelden Williams).
Hansbrough leads the ACC in free throw attempts per game. He averages 8.4% (243 in 29 games) versus Shelden Williams who averages 7.4% (245 in 33 games). This link provides some perspective on where Hansbrough falls in ACC history.
I can't find an up-to-date stat on his traditional three point plays, but as of Feb. 26 he had 38 opportunities. Since then, he hasn't slowed down.
Finally, against NC State on Jan. 7th he shot (and made all) 14 free throws.

On the flip-side, Hansbrough has been extremely good at keeping his opponents off the line and keeping himself in the game. Barry Jacobs makes note of how seldom Hansbrough gets called for fouls.

Freshmen ordinarily draw officials' attention, yet Hansbrough has been called for remarkably few fouls considering how physically he plays. Despite ad nauseam talk of officiating favoritism, Duke big man Shelden Williams, who has blocked 122 shots this season, had three or more fouls in 28 of 33 games.

Hansbrough was called for three or more personals in 17 of 29 games. You can bet this won't escape mention by opposing coaches next season.

Tyler Hansbrough has done an excellent job of staying out of foul trouble. In fact, he has only fouled out of one game all year and that was in the final minutes.

I am sure other coaches will be complaining next year, but if Hansbrough stays the aggressor (which he will) I don't think there is much opposing teams can do to stop Tyler from winning the foul/free throw battle.

Terry's Terrific Season

2006-03-15T08:13:00.000-08:00

Ken Tysiac of the Charlotte Observer has a piece on Reyshawn Terry's "vast improvement" since last year. To see more about Terry's success and importance to the Tar Heels check out my previous posts on his player rating and his role as a scorer.

Terry interpreted that as "bad criticism," and grew resentful, but assistant coach Steve Robinson took him aside and explained. "He sees a lot of potential in you," Terry said he was told.The "bad criticism" became "good criticism" in Terry's mind, but because of the talent in front of him, it took two seasons for him to display it.

Since [Christmas with Danny Green's family], Terry has scored at least 10 points in 18 of 21 games and averages 14.7. His long arms and explosive leaping ability at 6-foot-8 have made him one of the best wing players in the ACC.

North Carolina junior forward Reyshawn Terry is the most improved scorer in the ACC over last season:

Player, School; 2004-05 ppg; 2005-06 ppg; Improvement
Reyshawn Terry, North Carolina; 2.3; 14.7; +12.4
Anthony Morrow, Georgia Tech; 5.7; 16.0; +10.3
Zam Fredrick, Georgia Tech; 1.6; 10.6; +9.0;
David Noel, North Carolina; 3.9; 12.8; +8.9
Cedric Simmons, N.C. State; 3.5; 11.8; +8.3

Also, as noted on Tar Heel Blue, Terry is currently the most improved scorer in UNC history from one year to another.

With a 12.4 point per game increase over last season, Reyshawn Terry currently has the highest one-season increase in points per game in Carolina history (Donald Williams was the previous leader with a 12.1 ppg increase between his freshman and sophomore seasons).

SportsCentury: Dean Smith

2006-03-15T06:52:00.000-08:00

A must see:

ESPN Classic debuts "SportsCentury: Dean Smith" today at 8 p.m. The TV program chronicles the life and career of UNC's legendary coach, who took over a team on probation, won a record 879 games and coached the Tar Heels to two NCAA championships and one NIT title.

The show includes interviews with Smith and his wife, Linnea, as well as comments from Williams, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski, former Georgetown coach John Thompson, New York Knicks coach Larry Brown, former UNC player Sam Perkins and others.

D.C. Exposure (Philadelphia & San Diego)

2006-03-15T06:47:00.000-08:00

ESPN summarizes all 65 teams in the Big Dance. We'll look at just the ones that UNC has the best shot of facing...the D.C. region. Here are the teams that UNC could potentially meet in the Elite Eight.

To see the Dayton and Greensboro (for D.C. region) team weaknesses check out this post from yesterday.

According to ESPN these teams will lose when...

Philadelphia
Williams gets bottled up and the pace slows down. UConn likes to push the ball, and anything that gums up the works will be to the Huskies' detriment. (UConn #1)

The selection committee makes them a 15 or 16 seed. (Albany #16)

They shoot a lot of 3s and don't make many. That sounds elementary, but when the Wildcats become overly reliant on 3-pointers and neglect Morris in the post, they have trouble scoring. (Kentucky #8)

They shoot a lot of 3s and don't make many. That sounds elementary, but when the Wildcats become overly reliant on 3-pointers and neglect Morris in the post, they have trouble scoring. (UAB #9)

San Diego
The Huskies entered the postseason on quite a roll, but they could stumble in the NCAAs if they meet a team able to defuse their transition game and make them defend size at the other end. But UW likely won't go down quietly. (Washington #5)

Carroll and Harris aren't getting enough offensive help. The Aggies aren't going to roll up a lot of points, and the consistent contributions of Matheus, Spicer and Peterson have to be there. (Utah State #12)

The team's X-factors (Rich McBride, Randle, Smith and Shaun Pruitt) are all held in check. Seniors Dee Brown and James Augustine are most likely going to score in double figures, so keeping the 1-2 of the other guys from joining them is the key to beat the Illini. (Illinois #4)

They can't control the pace. A team that can control the defensive boards and is willing to push the ball in transition can, to some degree, negate the matchup zone. And Air Force is anything but explosive, so playing from behind is not easy. (Air Force #13)

Roy vs. ACC

2006-03-14T11:32:00.000-08:00

This is how David Glenn (on WRAL.com's blog) describes a situation involving Roy Williams at the ACC Tournament. Don't worry...we're not talking about recruiting violations or anything serious. And normally I wouldn't post something framing Roy negatively; but this is so trivial I figured I would pass along this tidbit. Besides there is some interesting stuff in these posts, such as insight into how Gary Williams treats his bench.

Later, during the Maryland-BC matchup that completed yesterday's schedule, UNC's Williams took a seat court-side, in an area that is reserved for coaches who want to scout a potential opponent or just chat with someone while observing a game. Apparently, Williams made the mistake of carrying a beverage in a Coke-sponsored cup with him. (The Tar Heels have a sponsorship deal with Coke, as anyone who visits the Smith Center can see.) An ACC administrator soon told the coach that the ACC Tournament and the Greensboro Coliseum both are sponsored by Pepsi, and that Williams needed to pour his drink into a container that was either clear/plain or contained a logo from a Pepsi product. Williams reacted angrily to the request, and he then sarcastically asked how far the league was willing to go to (paraphrasing) prostitute itself. Eventually, the coach did comply, but he obviously wasn't happy about it. Officials weren't thrilled with his response, either....

UNC coach Roy Williams couldn't let his post-game press conference end without a sly reference to the mini-controversy (Pepsi/Coke) outlined above. Throughout an extended Q&A session, Williams dramatically peeled pieces of tape from a roll and placed them over his Coke-sponsored cup, to cover the offending logos. When he ran out of tape, he (unprompted) made his first public comments about the topic, with sarcasm dripping from every word. "Does anybody have any extra tape they can lend me," Williams said, "so they don't fine me or take away my shoe contract because I came up here with the wrong sponsor?"

And he goes on:
The general consensus in Greensboro, and an opinion I certainly share, is that UNC coach Roy Williams was being outrageously unreasonable with his Coke-Pepsi spat. As with most ACC coaches, there are a lot more things to like about Williams than to dislike, but this situation clearly falls into the latter category in my eyes. Hey, coach, the main reason you're a rich man is that your sport is in bed with corporate America. If you and UNC can nurture your relationships with Nike and Coke and many others at every turn, why can't the ACC and the Greensboro Coliseum do the same with their partners? That's called hypocrisy, coach, and you're better than that....

D.C. Exposure (Dayton & Greensboro)

2006-03-14T09:59:00.000-08:00

ESPN summarizes all 65 teams in the Big Dance. We'll look at just the ones that UNC has the best shot of facing...the D.C. region. Here are the weaknesses of the teams that UNC could potentially meet in the first three rounds.

Tomorrow, I'll have a post on the top half of the D.C. region.

According to ESPN these teams will lose when...

Dayton
They play a step or two too fast. That's when Ager and Brown hoist off-balance, rushed shots, and the results often aren't pretty. (Michigan State #6)

Their lack of quality off-the-bench contributors catches up with them. (George Mason #11)

An opponent can force the Heels to cough the ball up. (North Carolina #3)

The score gets into the mid-70s. A shootout will put lots of pressure on this overly balanced group; someone needs to score big for the Racers to have a chance. (Murray State #14)

Greensboro
Miller isn't getting enough touches. This isn't to say that Miller is the be-all and end-all of the Shocker offense, but there are times when he gets forgotten, and those are usually bad stretches for Wichita State. The rest of the offense just works better when he is the focal point on the low block. (Wichita State #7)

They lose focus defensively. Too many times this season the Hall mailed it in on the defensive end of the floor, resulting in too many bad losses. (Seton Hall #10)

Their half-court defense is porous, which it often is. The Vols ended up last in the SEC in field goal percentage defense. (Tennessee #2)

ESPN omited Winthrop #15.

UNC's Odds Of Winning It All

2006-03-14T06:23:00.000-08:00

Once again using the Log5 formula with the Pythagorean winning percentage you can predict UNC's odds of advancing in the NCAA tournament. Yesterday, I had a post on UNC's chances in the first round. Then today on kenpom.com he had a post summing up every team's chances for the entire tournament. Talk about some serious work.

Well here is how it shakes out for the Tar Heels.

Seed Team Round 2 Round 3 Regionals Semis Final Champion
3 North Carolina 89.81% 65.88% 49.40% 26.90% 16.03% 8.08%

As a benchmark, the #1 seeds have the following chances of winning it all:
Duke - 11.77%
Memphis - 2.10%
Villanova - 9.01%
Connecticut - 11.55%

So if you have UNC winning it in your bracket this year (like every year) you aren't too far off. There are only 6 teams that have better odds of cutting down the nets in the end.

More Honors for Hansbrough

2006-03-14T06:07:00.000-08:00

University of North Carolina forward Tyler Hansbrough was named first-team All-America today by The Sporting News, becoming the first Tar Heel men's basketball player to earn first-team All-America honors as a freshman. (Inside Carolina)

What great recognition for Hansbrough. Well deserved.

I guess the guys at ACC Basketblog don't agree. They didn't even put Tyler on their ACC first team.

First Team
1. Sean Singletary- Virginia
2. JJ Redick - Duke, Player of the Year
3. Al Thornton - Florida State
4. Craig Smith - Boston College
5. Shelden Williams - Duke

Second Team
1. Jamon Gordon - Virginia Tech
2. G. Diaz - Miami
3. Jared Dudley - Boston College
4. David Noel - North Carolina
5. Tyler Hansbrough - North Carolina

Murray State Racers

2006-03-14T05:58:00.000-08:00

Here are some links related to the Tar Heels first round matchup.

The official web site of the Racers.

Inside Carolina's preview.

USA Today's matchup breakdown.

Related articles:
The Courier-Journal

The News & Observer

Lexington Herald-Leader

ACC NOW's Take on Heels Seed

2006-03-13T11:26:00.000-08:00

Here are J.P. Giglio's thoughts on UNC's bracketing:

In a rare pre-tournament upset, Carolina got shipped to Dayton, instead of a return trip to Greensboro. The Heels have to wonder what they did to deserve such treatment. If they figure it out, they could call Boston College, who were sentenced to Salt Lake City.

Seriously...after watching BC play this weekend how could they be a 4 in Salt Lake City? After watching UNC for the past couple of months how could we not get Greensboro?

The good news for the Heels and BC is their pod is less than intimidating and they could wind up with a very palatable path to the Sweet 16 in Washington.

Their opening round opponent, Murray State, won the vaunted Ohio Valley Conference, not to be confused with the Missouri Valley Conference.

After that it is either Michigan State, a team that hasn’t won a game away from home since last year's tournament, or George Mason.

I agree. Initially I was kind of upset to be outside of Greensboro and to see some of the other 2 seeds (namely UT). But I was comforted by what appears to be a very manageable bracket. Including the potential of facing UT as the 2 seed in our region.

UNC/Murray State First Round Game at 9:30 pm (correct 9:40 pm)

2006-03-13T09:25:00.000-08:00

This is the first place I have seen the game time. Just passing it along.

9:30pm on Friday, March 17th

UPDATED: I have since seen that the game tips around 9:40 pm.

Heels Chances According to History (by Seed)

2006-03-13T09:09:00.000-08:00

There is a nice article on ESPN about the history of seed matchups. Here is what is relevant to UNC.

3 vs. 14 70-14, 0.833
Two out of every three tourneys are bad news for 3-seeds. Kansas can vouch for that. No. 3 seeds are three-and-a-half times more prone to first-round upsets than 2-seeds. Heck, they're less likely to win one game in the tourney than the top seeds are to win two. With all due respect to Bucknell, however, it still doesn't make any sense to pick 3-seeds to lose. Too many have won championships to eliminate them early.

Upset watch: No. 14 seeds most likely to spring upsets are high-scoring squads, averaging more than 77 points a game. They're 11-22 (.333) while their lower scoring counterparts are just 3-48 (.058). The telltale sign of a 3-seed victim is a tight margin of victory. No. 3 seeds that beat opponents by an average of less than 12 points are five times more prone to upsets (12 losses in 45 tries for a 26.7 percent upset rate) than 3-seeds that win by a comfortable margin (only 2 losses in 39 tries for a 5.1% upset rate).

Good news for UNC is that Murray St. falls into the category of teams that average under 77 pts per game. They average 73.7. Historically speaking, that gives the Racers a 6.25% chance of winning.

Bad news for UNC is that the Tar Heels have had an average margin of victory of 11.5 points. According to that stat Murray St. has a 26.7% based on history. But UNC is right near the 12 pt margin of victory line that would give Murray St. only a 5.1% chance of an upset. Note: UNC had a 12+ margin of victory average going into Saturday's loss to BC.

Recent upsets: Bucknell over Kansas, 2005. Weber State over North Carolina, 1999. Richmond over South Carolina, 1998.

No Bold Prediction Here

2006-03-13T09:07:00.000-08:00

Using the Log5 formula and applying that to Pythagorean Ratings, UNC has a 90% chance of beating Murray State on Friday. Factor in a little common sense and basketball IQ and I think we easily can round that up to about 97%.

Rest easy Tar Heel fans. Enjoy one game at time...which is easier when you know in advance that the Tar Heels will walk away with a W.

Pythag Winning Pct:
UNC - .941
Murray St. - .644

Log5 Formula:
(.941-.941*.644)/(.941+.644-2*.941*.644) = 89.81%

Source: kenpom.com

Refocus and Regroup

2006-03-13T06:22:00.000-08:00

Refocus and regroup. That goes for the fans and the team. I am (finally) over Saturday's loss, and I have a lot of faith in this team getting back on track and making a big run. The Durham Herald-Sun has an article similar to my post on the silver lining of losing in the ACC semi-finals.

Noel's thoughts reflected the mood throughout UNC's locker room Saturday night. There was disappointment after the defeat, but there wasn't despair.

"We're not happy with the loss, but this is not a time to put your head down and pout," junior guard Wes Miller said. "We have accomplished some pretty good things this year. We've still got a big part of our goals and our season left, and that starts next weekend. We can't hang our heads about this one. We've just got to be ready to play next weekend and keep trying to get wins."

And any bit of complacency that might have oozed into UNC's locker room during its eight-game winning streak was erased. The loss to Boston College got the Tar Heels' attention -- "It's a slap in the face, really," guard Marcus Ginyard said -- and should help them refocus on the need to give maximum effort on every possession.

Silver Lining

2006-03-12T05:19:00.000-08:00

As painful as yesterday's loss was I am trying to find some silver lining.

(1) Last year's team lost to Duke in early February and then rolled through the 2nd half of the conference schedule without a loss. However, that team dropped their semi-final ACC tournament game by 3 points. That proved to be the motivation needed to make the run for the NCAA Championship.

(2) This Tar Heel team will NEVER give up. We saw it for the first time this year when UNC was down 14 to Illinois and made a 12pt run to make that an incredible rematch. We saw it in the Duke game when the Heels were down 17 at home and came back to take the lead temporarily. And we saw it against GT when UNC came back from a 20+ point hole to win. And we saw it again yesterday.

(3) Winning 16 games in a row would have been nearly impossible. That's what it would have taken to win both the ACC and NCAA tournaments after our 7 game regular season win streak.

(4) It took a very talented and dangerous team on the top of their game (61% shooting) to beat us (by 3 pts). I know we'll face other dangerous teams in the NCAA, but I also know we'll be in those games until the end.

Lucas: Pursuit of Perfection

2006-03-12T05:12:00.000-08:00

Adam Lucas always seems to find a way to capture the game.

It was hard not to appreciate that as you watched the Tar Heels try to claw back against Boston College Saturday afternoon.

There was a forced turnover and a Bobby Frasor three-pointer and a pair of Tyler Hansbrough free throws and a Hansbrough jumper. There was life.

Maybe not. There was also a very solid Boston College team. A team with more size and athleticism than Carolina is likely to see the rest of the season...

Someone will hoist a trophy Sunday afternoon. Someone will cut a net. One hour away, a team will practice. In search of that elusive perfection.

Can We Beat Every Team in The Conference?

2006-03-11T10:55:00.000-08:00

This is our chance.

Despite an unbalanced ACC schedule (due to the recent expansion), the Tar Heels now have a chance to beat every team in the conference at least once this year. Even last year's team didn't do that.

So far, UNC has won all of their rematches this year. I'm crossing my fingers we can do it one more time.

Lost to Miami on Jan. 14. Avenged that loss on Feb. 12 with a 10 pt win in Coral Gables.

Lost to UVA on Jan. 19th and came back to beat them twice this year.

Lost to Duke in early February and then went to Cameron and won that one.

We lost to Boston College on January 25th. Can we avenge that loss on March 11th?

UNC/UVA Game Player Grades

2006-03-11T05:28:00.000-08:00

Ten days ago I was grading the UNC/UVA game and it was hard to hand out a grade lower than an A. This time out against the Wahoos was nowhere near as pretty, but I think that will provide the motivation needed to take on a tough BC team.

Team Grade: B+
I won't be as hard on the team as Roy Williams was. "Like Coach said, on a scale from 1-to-10, we probably played at a 2," Noel said. Considering this was our team's first neutral court game and many of the player's first ACC tournament game, I'll take it...51% shooting, holding UVA to 28% shooting, and once again winning the rebounding battle (43-36). Final Score: UNC 79, UVA 67

Hansbrough: A-
Once again, UVA seemed to hold Tyler in check as good as any other team in the conference. Despite being doubled and even tripled much of the night, Tyler still walked away with a solid stat line which could have been even better had he knocked down free throws at his normal clip. 17 pts, 11 rbs

Terry: A+
Although Terry missed on his first three long range attempts he didn't get complacent. Rather he started attacking the basket and Joseph couldn't do anything but foul out because of it. Terry's 8 of 13 shooting and 7 of 7 effort from the line locked up player of the game for him and sent UVA packing. 24 pts, 7 rbs

Noel: B+
Despite the double double, I was expecting more from Noel. He had 3 turnovers and I thought all of them could have been avoided by good decision making. Noel's presence on the glass can't be denied though. 10 pts, 11 rbs

Frasor: C
This was Frasor's worst game in a long time. His stat line pretty much shows it all: 0 for 2 shooting, 5 personal fouls, and 16 minutes of action. Also, he couldn't stay in front of UVA's speedy guards. I expect a big game from him today. 0 pts, 2 assts, 0 tos

Miller: A+
Miller did what Miller is supposed to do. Pesky defense, dropping 3's, and even making both of the foul shots on the technical foul. In case you are wondering why he has one of the best offensive ratings in the country, last night was a perfect example. He scored 15 points with an effective field goal percentage of 137.5%. 15pts, 0 assts, 0 tos

Thomas: A+
I was a bit nervous (after all the good press Thomas got this week) that he would slump in this game. Fortunately he didn't...in fact he stepped up. With Frasor on the bench, QT took over. He forced two jump balls in the 2nd half, made a great save when the ball was going out of bounds, and kept up with UVA's quick guards. 3 pts, 6 assts, 2 tos, 24 min

Ginyard: B+
Despite hitting screens and hitting the floor hard, Ginyard did a good job defending UVA's guards in the 2nd half. While he snapped his double digit scoring streak, he continued to look like he he has found his role in the offense. 6 pts, 1 asst, 2 tos

Green: C
This has to be Green's worst outing in awhile...he didn't even get his trademark block. I have gotten used to a few stupid turnovers, because normally he balances it out with some big shots. Not last night though. Also, his lateral defense on small guards looks like a liability. 4 pts, 3 rbs, 4 tos

Sanders: No grade because of only 6 minutes of action. What happened there?

Chapel Hill West

2006-03-11T05:12:00.000-08:00

It was obvious even on TV that the Tar Heel faithful filled up the Collesium. After watching BC dismantle Maryland last night...the Heels will need the support again today. Congrats to the fans.

There are plenty of tickets for sale in sections 110, 111, 212 and 213. Those are the four sections designated for N.C. State fans.

Remember those tickets in the State section? Gone. Those four sections in the Greensboro Coliseum turned a distinct shade of baby blue.

The Greensboro Coliseum’s supposed to be a neutral court but with the preponderance of Carolina fans it didn’t sound like one during the Heels’ 79-67 win over UVa. It looked and sounded like Chapel Hill West.

Raycom Is Awful

2006-03-10T18:21:00.000-08:00

Good win. Let me get that out there first. Any tournament win is a good win. I'll post more on the game tomorrow, but before I forget the details...

Raycom is awful. If you were fortunate enough to live somewhere with ESPN2 coverage you should count your blessings. Raycom's coverage made Fox Sports South look like Emmy award winning material.

The things they screwed up were endless. The screw ups I remember are not.

The first thing I noticed was that they messed up the UNC/UVA score from last week. How do you mess up last week's score between the two teams you are featuring? The graphic they posted had UNC beating UVA by 35 (instead of 45). To make matters worse, Geminski didn't correct it...he repeated it several times.
A minor one I noticed was that they had Terry's points wrong early in the 2nd half. The graphic showed that he had 10 instead of 11.
While I knew Frasor had 3 fouls at the half, when he picked up another foul in the 2nd half the announcers said he picked up his third. Once again...minor, but annoying.
Does anyone want to hear Bobby Cremmins two cents??? Especially when he is mis-pronouncing everyone's name. He should not even try Mikalauskas.
Then there was the graphic that showed the last time UNC and UVA each won the ACC Tournament. They credited UVA winning it in 1978. Obviously, this was a stat/graphic that was prepared before the game. You would think they would get it right. They didn't. Fortunately, Geminski caught this mistake. Then again, he should have...he played on the Duke team that won it in 1978.
Finally...what has happened to Mike Hogwood? If you haven't seen Hogwood this year he is starting to look like a blend of the following:

Hot Shooting Could Lead to Blowout (of UVA)

2006-03-10T12:06:00.000-08:00

From the Daily Tar Heel:

The key matchup: North Carolina's shots versus the Greensboro Coliseum rims.

Way back in January, a run-down, beat-up, short-on-confidence Tar Heel team sleepwalked to a four-point loss at University Hall in Charlottesville, Va. The story of that game was North Carolina's spectacular inability to make jump shots when it mattered...

Since then, however, North Carolina has emerged as one of the ACC's best outside shooting teams...

On the season UNC is 2nd in the league in shooting at 48.2% while UVA is dead last at 42.2%. Also, UNC is 5th in the league from three (37.8%) while Virginia is 10th at 34%.

And in the teams' last meeting North Carolina's shooting prowess was on full display, as the team shot 55 percent from behind the arc and 59 percent from the floor en route to a 45-point smackdown of Virginia.If the Tar Heels' shots aren't falling tonight, the game could be tighter than expected. But if they are, the Cavaliers might not be able to keep it close.

Even if the shots aren't falling hopefully we can get enough rebounds to make it a blow out regardless. Virginia is actually 3rd in the conference in rebounding (+5 margin), but UNC leads the ACC with a +9 margin.

Some Gambler Stats On UVA

2006-03-10T08:15:00.000-08:00

Definitely don't take any betting advice from me. (1) I have only bet on basketball a few times in my life (2) I have lost every one of those bets (3) I wouldn't bet on UNC anyway...too many ways to be unhappy in the end.

Anyway, I thought I would throw out a couple stats that look good for the Heels...not only for beating the spread, but for winning the game and moving on to play Saturday.

After a win UVA is 6 and 8 (or 43%). UNC backs up their wins 75% of the time (15 and 5).
After 1 day of rest UVA is 0-1. Not much to go on there, but good nevertheless given UNC's tempo and bench. UNC has won 73% of their games when they have 3+ days of rest.
UVA is 2 and 10 (20%) when allowing their opponent to score 70+ points. The Tar Heels average 80+. Also, UNC is 13 and 1 (93%) when they hold their opponents under 70...UVA averages 68.6 pts per contest.
Oh yeah...and we beat them by 45 a week ago and UVA is horrible away from home.

PS: The line is at 12.5 (as of 11:30 am).

Similarities To Last Year's Model for Success

2006-03-10T07:04:00.000-08:00

I dug up this article by Luke Winn (again) that I read last year on cnnsi.com. In the back of my mind I remember he had a pretty good breakdown of the Tar Heels 2004-05 squad and I wanted to see if any of that was still true.

1. They're not just masters of the up-tempo game. They've become a model of efficiency as well.
Last Year:
According to tempo figures compiled by college hoops stats junkie Ken Pomeroy, the Tar Heels...are playing the second-fastest brand of ball in the nation, averaging 78.6 possessions per 40 minutes.

What is stunning -- and perhaps the best illustration of how dominant they can be -- is that the Heels are also No. 3 in the nation in offensive efficiency, scoring an average of 121.9 points per 100 possessions.

This means, in the simplest terms possible, that the Tar Heels don't just play faster than nearly every other team in the nation; they also average more points on every offensive possession than nearly every other team.

This Year:
Well as far as tempo goes the 05-06 Heels have dropped off from last year. This isn't a suprise given 4 lottery picks left. Nevertheless, this year's Tar Heels are not shabby coming in 23rd in the nation. My bet is that you will never see a Roy Williams team out of the top 25 in that category.

Last year we were #3 (at the time Winn did his article) in offensive efficiency. This year's squad has been nearly as efficient. Currently they average 118 points per 100 possessions which puts them at #6 in the nation.

Bottom line: This squad, while not as dangerous as last year's team, is one of the more powerful offensive teams in the country due to Williams' style of coaching and this squads well rounded performance.

2. Depth. A beefed-up bench gives the Heels the ability to stay quick and efficient for not just 20 or 30 minutes, but an entire game.
Last Year:
As Roy Williams cycles through a lineup that goes nine deep, it's vital that his reserves fit into the team concept.

This Year:
While last year the Tar Heels had Marvin Williams coming off the bench, this years reserves are even more solid. The current Carolina squad has 9 players averaging over 11 minutes per game. The 23 pts the bench is providing in scoring every game doesn't come close to capturing the contribution of the bench. The best illustration of their role was seen in the 2nd half comeback against Duke early in February.

3. It seems that they're starting to play defense. The Heels' D isn't all the way there yet, but it is a significant improvement from last season.
Last Year:
UNC did have lapses on the defensive end, but McCants had a career-high four blocks, and the effort of forwards May and Jawad Williams made Tech big man Luke Schenscher largely irrelevant.

This Year:
North Carolina is currently 10th in the country in Deffensive Efficiency only allowing 87.3 pts on 100 possessions. While not the best defensive team in the ACC, the Tar Heels have been solid in several categories including leading the league in defensive rebounds and coming in 3rd in field goal defense.

Bottom line: This team's defense is much improved over last year...it has to be given the loss of last year's offensive fire power. This defense is truly a team defense, as evidenced by this article in The Herald-Sun.

Ginyard became the seventh player to win UNC's defense award in the last 12 games.

"It just shows you a great thing about this team," he said. "One person isn't dominating that role. A lot of times you'll find that second and third place aren't far behind the leader. It's definitely a big-time statement about this team's defense and how far we've come since the beginning of the year."

Sources:
Efficiency stats from kenpom.com as of 3/10/06
Other stats from Yahoo as of 3/10/06

"I Must Break You"

2006-03-10T06:30:00.000-08:00

J.P. Giglio on the giant Lithuanian:
Turns out Laurynas Mikalauskas knows his “Rocky” characters. The big Lithuanian has seen “Rocky IV” a couple of times and recognizes the similarity between himself and Ivan Drago.

Our little blog is not the first time he’s been called Drago, the Russian boxer so poignantly portrayed by Dolph Lundgren. While Mikalauskas has no aspirations of becoming an Olympic biathlete or courting Brigitte Nielsen, he did utter the phrase “I must break you” for us.

The next task for Drago is stop Carolina’s Rocky — Tyler Hansbrough.

Of course, the only problem in this Drago analogy is the Big Guy lost in the end.

The other problem with this analogy is that Mikalauskas looks more like Oestertag (or any other overweight goon) than Drago.

Seth Greenberg's comments about Mikalauskas were classic:
"He either fouls out in five minutes or he gets seven offensive rebounds -- one or the other,"

Tyler has yet to really break loose on UVA and Mikalauskas. I think tonight is the night.

Thursday Games That Matter...for UNC

2006-03-09T13:57:00.001-08:00

There were only a handful of games today that have a semi-direct impact on the Tar Heels. There will be many more in the days to come.

NCAA Seeding
GW dropped the ball against Temple (53 to 68). Previously GW was a likely 4 seed. Although we should come in higher than that (2 or 3...maybe a 1?) regardless that's one less team in the way of a strong seed for UNC.

Michigan St/Purdue tonight will determine Illinois opponent tomorrow. Michigan State could be a tough draw for Illinois.

Games to look for tomorrow: Texas Tech/Texas, Penn St/Ohio St, Illinois/?. All those teams are possible 1 seeds, strong 2 candidates, and locks for no worse than a 3 seed. Obviously, if they lose and UNC continues surging that could directly affect what happens to the Heels.

ACC
Miami is still alive after clawing past Clemson (66 to 63). This could be important because despite their recent struggles they are a bigger threat to Duke. Potentially their dribble penetration can give the Devils suprisingly soft defense some trouble.

Wake tops FSU by 12. Wake/NCSU could be good.

Games to look for tomorrow: All of ACC tourney games

Updated:
Michigan State won, so they'll face Illinois. Hopefeull Michigan State can pull off a win against Illinois today.

UVA swept Va Tech, so that's who it will be tonight. More posts to come on that.

In the late game in the ACC Maryland kept their hopes alive by putting GT out of their misery.

Can Carolina Keep This Up?

2006-03-09T10:31:00.000-08:00

Eddy Landreth on Tar Heel Daily asks "Can Carolina keep this up?":

The UNC basketball team ended the regular season like a boxer pounding its opponent into submission with a flurry of rhythmic combinations to the chin.

The 10th-ranked Tar Heels went on the road and dominated N.C. State (95-71), which was second in the league at the time. Then they returned home to thump Maryland 81-57 and followed that by crushing Virginia by 45 points (99-54), in the final game at the Dean Dome.

For the finishing touch, they ruined no. 1 Duke's Senior Night at Cameron Indoor Stadium by beating the Blue Devils 83-76.

But what now?

Guess we'll have to wait and see. Hoping for the best.

Dave Ratings For Tarheels

2006-03-09T09:25:00.000-08:00

On davesaez.com he modifies the Prouty ratings, which can be used to rank the individuals in the league. This modified ranking system, he calls "Dave Ratings", uses the Prouty formula, but reduces the amount that wins affect an individual's rating. I tend to agree with him on that one. Keep wins in the equation, but reduce the factor.

In general this is how he sums up the Prouty rating system:

...there are four main sections. I'll call them Offensive Efficiency...Points Per Minute...Possessions Per Minute...and Win Effect...

...it factors in most items in the box score, points, rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers, fouls, etc. as well as some efficiency ratios.

If you want to know more about the Prouty ratings or the "Dave Rating" read up on the formulas on his site.

Anyway I wanted to pass along how UNC's players landed based on their "Dave Rating."

#3 Hansbrough, #7 Terry, #11 Noel, #14 Green, #45 Miller, #50 Frasor, and #62 Ginyard

That means the Tar Heels have 4 of the top 15 rated players. No other team is close...granted Duke has the top 2 spots & BC has the 4 & 5 spots.

Here were his comments on the UNC players:
Danny Green isn't just a nice role player for Carolina - he's very efficiently productive!

Green seems to be this years Marvin Williams, although much less heralded due to the additional bench strength of Carolina.

Reyshawn Terry, at least from a production standpoint, is a better player than David Noel. I know he's not the leader that Noel is, but Terry had a hell of a emergence in the second half of the season, and his numbers reflect that.

See my post from yesterday on the top scorers impact on the teams outcome. Not only has Terry come on big this season, but his points mean something. This is not said to diminish what Noel has done.

Scout.com Awards

2006-03-09T08:23:00.000-08:00

Scout.com hands out their national Coach of the Year and Freshman of the Year awards.

If you've followed the progress that the University of North Carolina basketball team has made over the course of the season, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise to you as to whom the Scout.com Coach and Freshman of the Year honorees are.

They picked Roy Williams for their coaches award and Tyler Hansbrough as their top freshman.

Has ever a program lost so much and yet been so good in the following season? In November, a trip to the NCAA tournament from within the tough Atlantic Coast Conference would have been considered overachieving by many. Now the Tar Heels are something beyond 'dark horse" candidates to be playing on the final weekend of the season.

Conference Confidence

2006-03-09T07:13:00.000-08:00

Coachspeak-to-English Translation by J.P. Giglio:

"I hope it isn't cockiness, but I told them that I thought we were the only team in the country that could come in here and win this game."
— UNC coach Roy Williams after his team's 83-76 win at Duke

Translation: Keep talking about Duke. Keep ignoring us. Please. I'm begging you. This "us-against-the-world" card is the greatest coaching creation since the whistle.

Unfortunately everyone is talking about UNC now. Thus, why a lot of media outlets are asking the question about whether UNC is too confident (or cocky). However, I like Ginyard's comments and I think this reflects the attitude and approach this team has.

"I don't think you can ever be too confident. I think it becomes an issue when you become cocky," he said. "To stay away from that side is just to understand that we've accomplished a lot of great things right now and that we're everybody's favorite team right now. But we've got to understand that there's so much more that can be accomplished."

"If we think that second place in the ACC and beating Duke is the best that we can do, then, yeah, we're going to get cocky. But if we understand that's just a small step toward what this team can accomplish, then we understand that, 'Yeah, we're a confident team, but we've got a long way to go.' "

Before the last Duke game I noticed extreme confidence (borderline cockiness) in our team, but that seems to be what the Tar Heel squad feeds off of. How else can you win all but 1 road game in the conference?

Thursday's Links (March 9th)

2006-03-09T05:45:00.000-08:00

Inside Carolina

As always, Tar Heel Times

The Scorers' Breakdown

2006-03-08T13:26:00.000-08:00

I saw this article by Luke Winn on cnnsi.com and it made me think about how the Tar Heels scorers stack up against these questions.

First of all Winn only looks at prominent scorers to answer these questions. He defines prominent scorers as a team's top 3 scorer. For the Tar Heels that is Hansbrough (19), Terry (14.22), and Noel (12.74). So we'll see how they perform relative to these questions.

1. Which prominent* scorers have the biggest impact on their teams winning or losing?

Winn only looks at conference games, but I went ahead and pulled all games for the Tar Heels. According to Winn, Richard Roby of Colorado had the biggest impact on his team's outcome. In Colorado's wins he averaged 23.7 and in their losses he averaged 10.6.

For the Tar Heels Reyshawn Terry has the biggest impact (as you have heard all year long). Terry averages 15.33 in our wins and 10.33 in our losess. Noel is second averaging 1.38 better in UNC's wins compared to losses. Suprisingly, Hansbrough actually scores less in our wins (18.90) than in our losses (19.33). Potentially this is due to the rest of the Tar Heels being more involved in those games and not simply relying on their star.

2. Which of the nation's top 10, tournament-bound scorers get the job done away from home -- and which of them don't?

The best scorer in the nation to step up for road games is Nick Fazekas of Nevada. He averages 2.5pts more on the road than at home.

We all know that the Tar Heels have been road warriors this year, but how have our top scorers done individually? Terry responds the best increasing his scoring by 1.71 on the road (15.3 vs 13.58). Noel is 2nd with 13.7 away from home compared to 12.18 in the Dean Dome. Hansbrough tends to score better at home (19.82) compared to on the road (17.6). Suprisingly when I threw out his 40 point game that trend still held up.

3. Which players are the biggest possession-hogs?
Marco Killingsworth of IU leads the list by using 34% of his team's possessions when he is on the floor.

Due to increased aggressiveness this year Terry leads the Heels top scorers in this category by using 26.8% of the possessions. Not far behind him is Hansbrough using 26.2% of the possessions. Noel trails using less than 1/5 of the possessions (19.5%).
Note: While not a top 3 scorer (and thus not included), Danny Green is 3rd on the team in this category using 23% of the possessions he is on the floor for.

4. Finally, which players are hogging the most shots?
If we take out the possession aspect from the last chart, and boil it down to the simplest ball-hog stat of all -- shots -- here's what happens:
Adam Morrison leads this category taking 36.6% of the Zags shots. Fotunately, due to the balance of UNC there is no one even close to this on the Tar Heels team.

Terry takes 27.8%, Hansbrough takes 25%, and Noel takes 19.3%.
Note: Green isn't shy here either, taking 27% of the Tar Heels shots when he is in the game.

Source:
Kenpom on 3/8 for % stats
Box Scores for scoring stats

ACC Championship Probabilities

2006-03-08T08:23:00.000-08:00

Yesterday I had a post comparing Duke and UNC's run to the ACC finals by RPI per possible opponent.

Ken Pomeroy credits Sean McGrath for providing another perspective that shows the probabilities for the ACC tournament. This is much more scientific than my approach yesterday. There is plenty of detail on the formulas that were used to derive these numbers if you are interested in Ken's post.

Here are the top 4 seeds. Review Ken's post for the full list. According to this analysis UNC and Duke are the hands down favorites to play in the title game and Duke has a slight edge to win it.

Seed Team Quarters Semis Finals Champion
1 Duke 100.00% 83.06% 65.29% 40.83%
2 UNC 100.00% 84.94% 66.47% 38.08%
3 BC 100.00% 61.49% 18.74% 6.11%
4 NC State 100.00% 54.43% 15.37% 5.34%

ESPN Full Circle Follow-up

2006-03-08T07:52:00.000-08:00

Regarding my post last week about the ESPN Full Circle coverage of the UNC/Duke game, I thought I would provide some follow-up.

Of course, I watched the game live on ESPN. However, for pre-game and halftime I really did enjoy being able to flip back and forth from ESPN & ESPN2 for the different analysis, coverage, and storylines.

Despite the fact that I thought I never would I actually watch a replay of the ESPN2 coverage which I recorded on Tivo, I did. Swept up in the excitement of the big win I watched the 2nd half on ESPN2 that same night. It was nice to watch the same game with a new perspective.

Apparently a lot of other people enjoyed the coverage too. It was ESPN's most watched college basketball game ever.

1 Seed? Doubt It.

2006-03-08T07:19:00.000-08:00

I wanted to pass this along even though I don't think it is real likely.

The AJC's Matt Winkeljohn analyzes what's on the line for all 12 teams in this week's ACC tournament.

Being from Atlanta I know that Matt Winkeljohn just got on the GT basketball beat several weeks ago (previously covered the Falcons), so this isn't the most experienced source in college basketball.

North Carolina
Playing for: A possible No. 1 seed. The Tar Heels have a seven-game winning streak, taking out Duke in Durham and destroying N.C. State on the Wolfpack's floor a week earlier. If Duke slips early, the Tar Heels — they open Friday against the winner of Thursday's FSU-Wake Forest game — have a shot if they win out and a couple other potential No. 1 seeds lose over the weekend.

Wednesday Links (March 8)

2006-03-08T06:59:00.000-08:00

Inside Carolina

No Suprises: Roy Williams Named ACC Coach of The Year

2006-03-07T14:11:00.000-08:00

Per Inside Carolina Roy Williams was named ACC Coach of the Year.

Coach, School (Votes)
Roy Williams, North Carolina (94)
Mike Krzyzewski, Duke (6)
Dave Leitao, Virginia (5)
Leonard Hamilton, Florida State (3)

ACC via RPI

2006-03-07T13:48:00.000-08:00

Earlier this week I mentioned that I liked the Tar Heels side of the bracket in the ACC Tournament. That was purely based on my impression of how we matched up with teams in the ACC.

So I decided to see if my hunch was valid. Based on the most up to date RPI info (thru 3/6 games on CollegeRPI.com) I still believe it. Please note these stats assume that we have an equal chance of playing each potential opponent, which isn't exact science/math...but let's just roll with it. Each team's RPI is in bold.

Possible first round opponents:
Duke (1): Miami (81) or Clemson (70) = Avg. RPI of Potential Opponent (76)
UNC (8): UVA (76) or VA Tech (132) = Avg. RPI of Potential Opponent (104)
Edge goes to UNC. Our average potential matchup is 28 notches better than Duke's.

Possible second round opponents:
Duke (1): Fla St. (56), Wake (107), NC State (40) = Avg. RPI of Potential Opponent (68)
UNC (8): Maryland (47), GA Tech (149), BC (33) = Avg. RPI of Potential Opponent (76)
Once again, edge goes to UNC.

I know that the RPI isn't a perfect metric (see Arizona at 24), but it is about as good of a measuring stick as there is in college basketball.

Hopefully the Heels will take advantage of this set-up and bring home the championship.

Handing Out The Hardware

2006-03-07T10:12:00.000-08:00

Here are Seth Davis' (cnnsi.com) ACC honors.

ACC
Player of the Year: J.J. Redick, Duke.

Freshman of the Year: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina.Hansbrough even made a strong case for runner-up to Redick as the ACC's POY. He was third in the league in scoring (18.7), fourth in field goal percentage (.586) and seventh in rebounding (7.5). Sorry to report I'm hearing rumblings out of Chapel Hill that he might consider entering the NBA draft.

Like everyone else he agrees with Hansbrough's nod as Rookie of The Year in the ACC. Everyone (except nbadraft.net) has heard the rumblings that Tyler will go pro, but I really feel confident he'll stick around for 1 more.

Coach of the Year: Roy Williams, North Carolina. Another easy choice. No team in league history had ever lost its top seven scorers, but Williams still guided the Tar Heels to sole possession of second place in the conference. When the season began, I didn't think the Heels could even make the NCAA tournament, much less earn a No. 2 seed.

If Roy Williams doesn't get named Coach of The Year it would be highway robbery.

All-conference: Redick; Hansbrough; Shelden Williams, Duke; Craig Smith, Boston College; Sean Singletary, Virginia.

The voters agreed with Seth Davis.

2006 ACC Basketblog Coach of the Year

2006-03-07T09:42:00.000-08:00

Check out this post regarding ACC Basketblog's Coach of the Year. Below are some quotes from their piece.

This was a close race until Duke lost to Florida State and UNC blasted Virginia by 45 points last week.

Agreed. See my post on this exact topic last week.

We predicted 20 wins and a top three finish in the conference for UNC. Coach Williams was going to have to do a lot to out perform our expectations. The manner in which he got those 20 wins did the trick:

They obviously had better expectectations than most outlets. I guess this is why it is always good to read a little commentary outside the mainstream media.

First, the development of two role players into All Conference level performers;

Second, the good sense not to listen to this writer by keeping Wes Miller on the bench. Instead, he started the serviceable Wes Miller. This move gave the Tar Heels a second bonified 3 point threat in the starting five, which unleashed freshman phenom Tyler Hansbrough on the league;

Third, orchestrating two confidence building demolitions of top tier programs in Kentucky and Arizona;

Fourth, getting the team refocused after a disappointing loss at Virginia for their first showdown with Duke;

Fifth, 7-1 on the road in the ACC; andFinally, having the savvy to run Ginyard on Redick in the season ending victory over the hated Blue Devils. That win was, perhaps, the most significant regular season victory for the Heels in the past 25 years.

I agree with those most of those points. However, "most significant regular season victory...in the past 25 years"...that's a bit much. But I do agree that it will be a turning point in the UNC/Duke rivalry that will push the edge back to the Tar Heels

...they are starting to play with the poise befitting a much older and experienced team. In short, they look a lot like Dean Smith era North Carolina teams. Not a bad guy to model.

...with the right draw and a few key upsets (clearly, those happen every single year in the tournament), Roy’s Heels could Dance on the last weekend in March. Not probable, but reasonably possible.

There are several teams that are more talented and better on the court than these Heels (Duke included). There are none that have accomplished more after having endured the losses that Carolina sustained. This team starts two walk-ons, a puzzling but talented 3 guard, a serviceable point guard and an All-America freshman (but older) center.

The Bubble

2006-03-07T09:13:00.000-08:00

There is lots of talk right now about the teams on the bubble. Thank God we aren't one of them.

Just to give you an idea what it feels like to be on the bubble, here is what Maryland fans had to read when they hit their team's website this morning.

University of Maryland men's basketball fans will be able to order tickets on Monday, March 13 for either the NCAA Tournament or the Postseason NIT by following the information described...below.

Can you imagine having that looming over you? They aren't worrying about what seed they'll be. They don't even know what tournament they'll be in.

I know it happened to Tar Heel fans several years ago, but that feels like the distant past now...one championship later. And with Roy at the helm I don't think we'll have to worry about that for a long time.

Why Register?

2006-03-07T08:47:00.000-08:00

Nothing is worse than when you click on a link to get to a UNC article and you are forced to register just to read it. That means another account, another passowrd, and more spam. To avoid that, go to this site (BugMeNot.com), enter the URL (e.g. www.NYTimes.com), and it will provide a username and password.

Here were the results I got when I looked up some sites (which typically carry UNC articles). However, I didn't test these myself, so they may or may not work.

www.winstonsalemjournal.com
Username: crybaby
Password: journal

www.wilmingtonstar.com
Username: nobody@nc.rr.com
Password: nobody

www.fayettevillenc.com
Username: chucke1
Password: cheese

www.charlotteobserver.com
Username: allyourbase@hotmail.com
Password: arebelongtous

www.heraldsun.com
Username: bugmenot
Password: bugmenot

www.newsobserver.com
Username: greenlamp
Password: lightbulb

www.nytimes.com
Username: thissuxbigtime
Password: nopass

The Regular Season By The Numbers

2006-03-07T08:38:00.000-08:00

Here is a snapshot of North Carolina’s regular season stats. From looking at these stats it is easy to see why the Tar Heels finished up conference play ahead of 10 other teams.

Below you see the stat, the conference rank, and the average (or margin). I threw in the National Ranking on some of the stats.

Stats UNC is at the top half of the conference in:
Rebounding Margin: #1, Margin +9.1 (3rd in the Nation in Rbds per game)
Defensive Rebounds: #1, Avg. 26.11
Assists: #1, Avg. 18.19
Scoring Margin: #2, Margin +12
Scoring Offense: #2, Avg. 80.4 (12th in the Nation)
Offensive Rebounds: #2, Avg. 14.38
Field Goal %: #3, Avg. 48.2% (20th in the Nation)
Field Goal % Defense: #3, Avg. 41.1%
3 Pt Field Goal % Defense: #4, Avg. 33.4%
3 Pt Field Goals Made: #4, Avg. 6.78
3 Pt Field Goal %: #5, Avg. 37.8% (60th in the Nation)
Assist/Turnover Ratio: #5, Ratio 1.08
Free Throw %: #6, Avg. 70.4% (131st in the Nation)

Stats UNC is at the bottom half of the conference in:
Scoring Defense: #7, Avg. 68.4
Steals: #7, Avg. 7.96
Blocked Shots: #8, Avg. 4.07
Turnover Margin: #9, Margin -1.37

Source:
TheACC.com (on 3/7/2006) for ACC stats
CBSSportsline.com (on 3/7/2006) for National stats

Sorry for the sloppy format...I haven't figured all this stuff out yet.

All-ACC Teams

2006-03-06T13:54:00.000-08:00

http://northcarolina.scout.com/2/505935.html

FIRST TEAM
Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina (108), 324

SECOND TEAM
David Noel, North Carolina, 127

THIRD TEAM
Reyshawn Terry, North Carolina, 54

http://www.wwaytv3.com/Global/story.asp?S=4592109&nav=menu70_4
Hansbrough is the first freshman ever to earn unanimous first-team honors.

Tyler's Record Tying ROW (Should Be Record Breaker)

2006-03-06T13:20:00.000-08:00

Tyler Hansbrough was named ACC Rookie of The Week on March 6 (also named player of the week) and tied Kenny Anderson for a record of 10 weekly honors.

In tying Kenny Anderson's 1990 record of 10 ACC Rookie of the Week selections, Hansbrough averaged 20.0 points and 9.0 rebounds as the Tar Heels ran their winning streak to seven in a row with wins over Virginia and No. 1 Duke. The Poplar Bluff, Mo., native led all scorers on both teams with 27 points in Carolina's 83-76 win at top-ranked Duke, scoring 19 of his 27 points in the second half.

In my mind this should have been the record breaking ROW because he got robbed earlier this year for 1 week and maybe two.

The numbers are below...you be the judge.

Week 1 (Jan 30 ROW): Is this a player of the game honor now?
Hansbroughs' #s: 26pts, 8rbs vs Boston College and 21pts, 11rbs vs Arizona
A.D. Vassallo (winner): opts, 1rb vs Duke and 29pts, 10rbs vs Wake

Week 2 (Feb 6 ROW): Maybe this one is a toss up, but Hansbrough had a better average and the Heels got 2 wins.
Hansbroughs' #s: 14pts, 7rbs vs Clemson and 15pts, 8rbs vs Maryland
A.D. Vassallo (winner): 13pts, 6rbs vs GT and 14pts, 4rbs vs BC

Tyler Mania

2006-03-06T12:51:00.000-08:00

Couple of snipets from 3/6/2006 on Tyler50.com.

In other news, CNNSI has ranked Tyler's 40 point game versus Georgia Tech earlier this season as the 5th best game performance in college basketball this season. ESPN.com experts unanimously select Tyler as their "Freshman of the Year".

Tyler is the only freshman of the 22 finalists on the voting ballot of the Wooden All-American Team and Player of the Year. The winner will be announced April 8th at 1pm Central Time at the John R. Wooden Award ceremony on CBS.

Futility

2006-03-06T11:48:00.000-08:00

Personally I thought Shelden had a solid game. But I have to post this nonetheless considering how great a game Hansbrough had.

Polls for Week 18

2006-03-06T10:42:00.000-08:00

We moved up to tenth in ESPN's poll this week. We were the only team other than Connecticut to get a 1st place vote.

ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings - The poll

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=2356392
North Carolina (21-6) made a huge impression with its 83-76 win at Duke on Saturday. The Tar Heels received the remaining first-place vote and elevated five places to No. 10.

AP: We're up to 10 in the AP poll too.
AP Poll on CNNSI.com

Exceeding Expectations

2006-03-06T08:48:00.000-08:00

By now even I am kind of tired of articles about UNC exceeding expectations. It is time to re-adjust our expectations and plan on solid runs in the upcoming tournaments. ACC Championship and NCAA Championship are not unreasonable goals...at all.

But for one last look at how much UNC has exceeded expectations look at their performance against the spread (ATS) this year. Carolina finishes the regular season as #2 in the country ATS. They sit at 18-7-0.

The only team that has a better ATS are the Cal Poly SLO Mustangs at 17-6-0...and that has to be just because no one knows who they are. I can't believe there were even 23 lines on them this year.

ACC Chatter

2006-03-06T08:37:00.000-08:00

Since this week will be full of ACC Tournament anticipation, I wanted to highlight two great links for ACC articles and commentary. I have both of these listed as links on my sidebar.

ACC Now
Blog by the Raleigh News & Observer. Updates pretty often during the day and always has an interesting perspective on teams across the league...especially the teams in the triangle.

ACC Basketblog
Good site for coverage of the ACC. At times I have noticed a little anti-UNC bias, but of late that has seemed to balance out. You can often find links here that you don't see elsewhere.

And of course there is the old standby link for your run of the mill articles.
TheACC.com

2 Seed (Post #2)

2006-03-06T08:26:00.000-08:00

Yesterday I mentioned Lunardi had us as a #2 seed. Here is another opinion:

Yes, North Carolina won at Cameron, spoiling Senior Night for J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, and the rest of the Blue Devil seniors. And yes, many people are talking about a #2 seed in next week's tournament. But, there are still many teams ahead of the Tar Heels on the #2 line. However, should one falter, or Carolina ramble through Greensboro this weekend.....

I guess we'll just wait and see. If we aren't a two seed I think we're mighty close, as long as we don't lay an egg in the ACC tournament...which won't happen.

Here are the 1 thru 3 seeds he has in no particular order:
Duke (1)
Villanova (1)
Memphis (1)
Connecticut (1)
Ohio State (2)
Gonzaga (2)
Texas (2)
Illinois (2)
LSU (3)
Tennessee (3)
West Virginia (3)
North Carolina (3)

I think we are hands down the best of those 3 seeds. I know Illinois beat us early in the season, but I definitely think we have the edge there.

Spread the QT Love

2006-03-06T06:52:00.000-08:00

To make up for all the bad things I said about QT over his first 1.5 seasons at UNC I'll help spread the great press he is getting.

No doubting Thomas as backup's game improves
On the Crazies' cheer sheet, shortly after an entry on North Carolina freshman Tyler Hansbrough that mentions his fear of snakes and claims that he has "alien-like features," was a one-sentence entry about UNC's backup point guard: "Quentin Thomas is really, really bad at basketball." Not so much.

Thomas' performance against Duke helped make a mockery of the Crazies' cheer sheet in more ways than one.

Turnaround by Thomas
Thomas, a reserve guard who averages just 2.5 points in 11.8 minutes off the bench for UNC, rarely commands the spotlight. But he may as well be the poster child for these Tar Heels.
Once a dartboard for criticism from Carolina coaches and fans, the sophomore guard has quietly evolved into a reliable contributor.

Shooting the Breeze
Although Thomas doesn’t receive as much attention as Carolina starting point guard Bobby Frasor or Duke’s Greg Paulus, on Saturday night, he was the best point guard in Durham.

Monday Links (March 6th)

2006-03-06T06:28:00.000-08:00

Inside Carolina

ACC Tournament

2006-03-05T16:06:00.000-08:00

I really like our side of the bracket.

Possible opponents before finals: UVA, VA Tech, BC, Maryland, and GA Tech. I'll post more on this later this week.

From TheACC.com
Thursday, March 9 - 1st Round
#8 Miami (7-9, 15-14) vs. #9 Clemson (7-9, 18-11)
#5 Florida State (9-7, 19-8) vs. #12 Wake Forest (3-13, 15-15)
#7 Virginia (7-9, 14-13) vs. #10 Virginia Tech (4-12, 14-15)
#6 Maryland (8-8, 18-11) vs. #11 Georgia Tech (4-12, 11-16)

Friday, March 10 - Quarterfinals
#1 Duke (14-2, 27-3) vs. #8/9 winner
#4 NC State (10-6, 21-8) vs. #5/12 winner
#2 North Carolina (12-4, 21-6) vs. #7/10 winner
#3 Boston College (11-5, 24-6) vs. #6/11 winner

Saturday, March 11 - Semifinals
Game 9 (Winners of games 5/6)
Game 10 (Winners of games 7/8)

Sunday, March 12 - Finals
ACC Championship Game

Sunday Links (March 5th)

2006-03-05T15:50:00.000-08:00

Everyone probably has read every article capturing last nights great win by now...but here are some more UNC/Duke articles.

Tar Heel Daily

2 Seed

2006-03-05T15:29:00.000-08:00

Joe Lunardi now has UNC as a 2 seed. In Greensboro. That's great...even if the 1 seed is Connecticut.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

Defending the Title

2006-03-05T15:21:00.000-08:00

I think most Tar Heel fans have seen it coming, but it looks like the press has finally caught on that UNC has a legitimate chance of rolling thru the Sweet 16 (thanks Digger) and making a big time run in the tournament.

Katz Catches On
Saturday night, for really the first time all season, North Carolina took back the top spot in this sport a year after it went on its storied run to the national title.

The N&O Believes
Along with its speed, Carolina showed two impressive traits -- confidence and guts. All three reflect the effect of coach Roy Williams in his third season.

So much for rebuilding. That is done. The new structure is starting to look like a juggernaut.

Even The NY Times
North Carolina was supposed to be rebuilding after winning last year's national championship and losing its top seven scorers to the N.B.A. and graduation. Consider the construction nearly complete. The Tar Heels have won seven in a row; their last loss was to Duke on Feb. 7.

"Steady Scoring Machine"

2006-03-05T15:17:00.000-08:00

Check out this post from Ken Pomeroy on UNC's steady scoring vs. Duke.

Other interesting quotes from his post:
I haven’t heard anybody say it yet, so I will: Right now, UNC is the best team in the ACC. Even if you believe last night’s game was an abberation and Duke is still the best bet to go the farthest in the dance - which is perfectly reasonable - I think you’d have to admit the gap between these two is now very small. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Duke or UNC in the Final Four. I thought it was odd that near the end of the game, Brad Nessler noted that UNC was playing for a 2-seed in the ACC Tourney and would get the spoils of avoiding Duke until the title game. I mean, UNC had just won in Duke’s house. If there’s one team trying to avoid the other, I would suggest it’s the other way around.

Any of UNC’s players can and does bring the ball into the frontcourt. Even Hansbrough led a fast break once. I’m just saying it’s time to update your expectations. Enough talk about Roy being Coach of the Year and how crazy this all is. This isn’t January any more. This team is good enough to stand on its own now.

Post Game Excitement

2006-03-04T20:50:00.000-08:00

Things I can't wait to write about:

Ginyard on Redick. Not only on D, but posting him up and slashing.
Point Guard play that I never imagined. Frasor hitting the 3 and QT attacking.
Hansbrough
2nd seed in the ACC tournament
Roy turning the tide in the Duke series...as I predicted
Our freshmen
Terry big threes...but some bad shots
Why we are better than Duke
Why I hate Digger Phelps after he said we "could" make it to the Sweet 16 (although he did say it pre-game)

Fresh Legs & Freshmen...55 and 49%

2006-03-04T20:34:00.000-08:00

The story of the game wasn't only the Tar Heel's freshmen...it was the fresh legs.

The fresh legs are hard to quantify with stats other than the bench points. But I can immediately tag what the freshmen did.

55 points. 49% shooting in Cameron

By the way...Psycho T had almost half of those. But it was Ginyard's D on Redick that made the difference.

What Happens @ Halftime?

2006-03-04T20:21:00.000-08:00

Wow! What a win.

I just heard Erin Andrews post-game with Roy and she asked what he said at halftime. He didn't give much away...as usual. I guess at the half he just said what a Coach of the Year says.

I'll be back with some stats on UNC's second halves this year. They have been incredible...although I haven't looked at it on paper.

And...of course I'll have some recaps.

The Left Side is The Right Side

2006-03-04T15:38:00.000-08:00

If you are reading this blog you probably will agree with me that the left column is the only one you need to read.

Who's the top coach? - Fayetteville Observer

UNC and Duke Matchups

2006-03-04T13:43:00.000-08:00

Here is the Charlotte Observer's take on tonight's matchups.

Matchups:
POINT GUARD
DUKE'S GREG PAULUS VS. NORTH CAROLINA'S BOBBY FRASOR: Paulus is No. 1 and Frasor No. 2 in the ACC in assists per game, but both freshmen have struggled with turnovers. Frasor is a better perimeter shooter. EDGE: North Carolina.

It's hard for me to agree that Frasor @ 29.7% (Paulus @ 35.8%) is a much better three point shooter (for now at least). However, I do agree we have the edge in this matchup. And if QT continues his solid bench play this will be a key advantage for UNC.

SHOOTING GUARD
DUKE'S J.J. REDICK VS. NORTH CAROLINA'S WES MILLER: Miller is the feel-good story of this season, a walk-on from Charlotte who never gave up. Redick has scored more points than anybody in ACC history and is playing on his senior night. EDGE: Duke.

There isn't to much I can say about this one. Redick certainly has the edge, but hopefully Miller can cancel out some of Redick's productivity with some big shots.

SMALL FORWARD
DUKE'S DEMARCUS NELSON VS. NORTH CAROLINA'S REYSHAWN TERRY: Nelson is a ferocious rebounder and tenacious defender. Terry has breathtaking athletic ability and has developed the confidence to use it. EDGE: North Carolina.

Definitely advantage UNC here, although Nelson had a big game in Cameron last year. Terry will have the national stage to showcase his abilities tonight. I hope he shines in the spotlight like he did in Rupp Arena earlier this year.

POWER FORWARD
DUKE'S JOSH MCROBERTS VS. NORTH CAROLINA'S DAVID NOEL: McRoberts scored a career-high 17 points last time against the Tar Heels and has the advantage in the post at 6-foot-10. Noel is more comfortable on the perimeter and has averaged 21 points over his past three games. EDGE: North Carolina.

McRoberts is one of the x-factors, but we know what we are going to get from Noel. Of course I agree we have the advantage here.

CENTER
DUKE'S SHELDEN WILLIAMS VS. NORTH CAROLINA'S TYLER HANSBROUGH: Hansbrough is the nation's best freshman because he scores in the post and on the fast break. Williams does all that and is an intimidating shot blocker as well. EDGE: Duke.

I disagree that Duke has the edge. I think this one is a push...as evidenced by the last game where Williams had 13 & 9 and Hansbrough had 14 & 9.

BENCH
With Sean Dockery bothered by a hand injury, Duke's reserves scored just eight points Wednesday in a loss at Florida State. North Carolina is getting superb play off the bench from Danny Green, Quentin Thomas and Marcus Ginyard. EDGE: North Carolina.

No doubt we have this area won. I am looking for Danny Green to have a big game. He seems to be the type of player that learns from every mistake, so I think he'll avenge the mental lapse he had at the end of the game one month ago.

COACHING
North Carolina's Roy Williams will be the coach of the year in the ACC and perhaps the nation. But nobody is better at getting his team emotionally ready for a big game than Duke's Mike Krzyzewski. Edge: Duke.

The record proves that Coach K kind of has Williams number (to this point), but I think it is about time for the tides to change. I'll give "the rat" the edge going in, but I think after a Tar Heel win tonight it is going to be Roy's edge for years to come.

Saturday Links (March 4th)

2006-03-04T13:40:00.000-08:00

Tar Heel Daily

Confidence

2006-03-03T12:06:00.000-08:00

As usual, Bill Cole does a good job of reporting on the Heels. He captures the Tar Heels confidence perfectly with this quote from Bobby Frasor.

"We were down (to Duke) 17 points in the second half, and we come back and take a five-point lead against the No. 1-2 team in the country. Just that right there, that comeback, that will to win, shows that we can play with any team in the country. We're not trying to send a statement, but I guess it sent itself by us beating people handily." -Bobby Frasor

We'll need this confidence and a big time game from Frasor against Duke this Saturday.

Doomed Dukies

2006-03-03T09:10:00.000-08:00

I know we need to worry more about the players Duke currently has, considering tomorrow night's game...but it always feels good to point out their past players' shortcomings. Ethan Trex on cnnsi.com does a good job of it. He must dislike them more than me.

"Duke players in the NBA should be avoided like a girlfriend with anger issues, no matter how good they looked in college."

He misses a few players, but for the most part he gets a jab in on almost all of the former Blue Devils.

One of the best lines has to be:
"I'd go on, but I've got to wrap things up. Cherokee Parks just showed up to deliver my pizza."

Couldn't Have Said It Better

2006-03-03T07:56:00.000-08:00

Bob Holliday at WRAL describes why the Tar Heels are now on everyone's "don't want to play" list come tournament time.

"Carolina's forwards have erupted. Noel and Reyshawn Terry are scoring threats from anywhere on the court. Opponents must now defend the post, the perimeter, and two forwards who can score inside or out."

Wes Miller, The 7th Best Offensive Player in the Country?

2006-03-03T07:10:00.000-08:00

In a million years would you have guessed that Wes Miller would be the 7th best offensive player in the country? Let's be honest, did you ever think he would start in any game other than on Senior Day next year against Duke?

Well based on Ken Pomeroy's "Offensive Ratings" for all players in the country Miller is ranked 7th in the nation with a rating of 130.5.

1 Steve Novak, Marquette 135.7 (18.2)
2 Seth Colclasure, Valparaiso 133.1 (12.8)
3 Dale Lamberth, Missouri St. 132.5 (15.8)
4 Michael Neal, Oklahoma 131.9 (18.7)
5 Josh Alexander, Stephen F. Austin 131.7 (20.6)
6 Chris Lofton, Tennessee 130.9 (19.1)
7 Wes Miller, North Carolina 130.5 (12.2)
8 Darrel Owens, Georgetown 130.1 (16.4)
9 Richard Law, South Alabama 129.6 (17.0)
10 Josh Goodwin, Belmont 129.2 (14.9)

We all love what Wes Miller has done (and will do) this year, but is he one of the best offensive players in the nation?

According to Ken Pomeroy offensive rating is defined as...well basically it is to hard to explain:
"A measure of personal offensive efficiency developed by Dean Oliver. The formula is very complicated, but accurate. For a detailed explanation, buy Basketball on Paper. Anything over 110 is good, and 120 is excellent for a player that is the workhorse on his team. The best I saw from last season was Utah State’s Spencer Nelson at 133. "

But if you look at the Miller's stats you can see some of the factors that are probably contributing to his stellar rating.

Is Wes Miller one of the most dangerous players in the nation? No, because Wes still can't create his own shot and probably never will be able to. Wes only takes a shot on 13.5% of the possessions he is in the game for, thus the 7 pt average despite a 64% effective field goal percentage. Who is the most dangerous player in the nation? Unfortunately it is a guy we'll face this weekend. JJ Redick has an offensive rating of 124.8 which puts him at 23rd overall, but then again he shoots on 29.3% of Duke's possessions...thus why he is in the race to lead the nation in scoring.

With this year's deep, talented, and balanced UNC team (and next year's too) we don't need one of the most dangerous offensive players in the nation. We need a player to knock down big three pointers, handle the ball with care, make hustle plays, and play steady defense. Who's that guy? Wes Miller.

Quanity vs. Quality: ESPN Full Circle

2006-03-03T06:25:00.000-08:00

Does ESPN actually think anyone will be watching ESPN2 or ESPNU during Saturday night's UNC/Duke game? Do we really need 3 stations (4 if you have HD) covering the same game simultaneously?

"The game coverage alone will be broadcast in three different ways on three ESPN outlets. ESPN will carry a traditional broadcast of the 9 p.m. game, with Dick Vitale, of course. ESPN2 will have a non-traditional broadcast, using two above-the-rim cameras. ESPNU will use a split screen, one with game action, the other a "Cameron Crazies" camera stationed in the stands that will shoot fans as well as game action."

Maybe I'll Tivo the the ESPN2 coverage along with the ESPN coverage, but what's the chance of me ever watching it? Do we really want to see a game form some strange camera angle? There is nothing worse than when they show some obscure camera angle where you can't see any of the plays develop.

I wish ESPN would instead concentrate on improving their traditional broadcast. They could mix in the "above rim" cameras for replays, come up with some original "keys to the game", use a sideline reporter for each bench, throw more stats into the traditional broadcast, and limit the references to "JJ's" greatness.

Come to think of it maybe the ESPNU coverage will be the best reward for UNC fans since Roy Williams accepted the job in Chapel Hill. Can you imagine getting to watch Cameron empty out from the "Cameron Crazies" camera after a UNC victory? That could be classic...no not ESPN classic.

Friday's Links (March 3rd)

2006-03-03T06:09:00.000-08:00

Inside Carolina's Links

Tar Heel Times' Links

Good News...For Us

2006-03-02T12:30:00.000-08:00

I was shocked when I saw the most recent (Feb. 27) mock draft on nbadraft.net. Tyler Hansbrough isn't even on the board as a 1st of 2nd rounder. I don't know if they are just assuming that he's staying in school or not.

For our sake let's hope he does stick around...regardless of how high his stock winds up being. But, Bret Dougherty recommends just enjoying his play now, because we should expect him to leave.

"If players like May and Dunleavy are leaving education behind, do you really think anyone should bank upon loyalty and the old college experience anymore in the college basketball world today? If there's a whiff of over 1M or in the Top 25...It's likely to be sayonara, and see you next summer. "

PS: I can't believe Josh McRoberts is 5th. Hope he leaves.

First Noel

2006-03-02T11:04:00.000-08:00

Before I saw Caulton Tudor's article today in The News & Observer I didn't even know that Noel was in the running for first team All ACC. As much as I follow the Tar Heels I don't know how I missed this debate. I just assumed he would make the 2nd or 3rd team, but wasn't in the conversation for first team. Needless to say, I am glad someone is speaking up for him.

"If Wednesday was an audition between Virginia's Sean Singletary and North Carolina's David Noel for the fifth spot on the All-ACC basketball team, Noel won easily. It's not that simple, of course. It's not a two-horse race."

Regardles of whether David makes it or not, I am glad to see he is in contention. Roy Williams sums it up best.

"His stats are pretty doggone good, and that's not taking into account his leadership and defense."

Thursday's Links (March 2nd)

2006-03-02T10:52:00.000-08:00

Senior Night Spectacle (Inside Carolina)

Noel simply sensational in Smith Center finale (The News and Observer)

Heels' Noel builds his case for top honors (The News and Observer)

Tar Heels run wild, demolish Cavaliers (The News and Observer)

Noel finishes strong with career-high 26 points (Durham Herald-Sun)

UNC glides past Virginia, 99-54 (The News and Observer)

UVa suffers worst-ever blowout at North Carolina (Charlottesville Daily Progress)

Matt Doherty's success good, bad for FAU (Palm Beach Post)

The Man (Tar Heel Blue)

Heels, Noel win big in home finale (Tar Heel Daily)

We Have a Winner

2006-03-02T09:55:00.000-08:00

David Teel explains how Roy pretty much wrapped up ACC Coach of the Year honors last night.

"Well, that was tidy. A three-horse race for ACC basketball coach of the year was settled in about four hours Wednesday night. That's the time it took Florida State to end Duke's undefeated conference run, and North Carolina to embarrass Virginia."

What a good night...a Duke loss, a UNC romp, and it looks like Roy will get the credit he deserves.

"Goes to show us yet again: Williams can coach his backside off; never underestimate Carolina's talent - remember, each of the Tar Heels' four freshmen were national recruits."

Well really we have five freshmen (Hansbrough, Frasor, Green, Ginyard, and Copeland) and one of them was not a national recruit, but that's besides the point. This statement alone shows why UNC is in a great position to reclaim ACC and NCAA dominence for years to come.

Straight A's, Almost

2006-03-02T08:56:00.000-08:00

Team Grade: A+
To have a chance in the final minute to double up a desperate (supposedly) conference opponent, you know you have to be clicking on all cylinders. Well the heels definitely put it together against UVA, handing them their worse loss ever in this rivalry. Glad to see that the team wasn't looking ahead to the Duke game...not that I expected this team to. Final Score: UNC 99 UVA 54

Noel: A+
With that performance, his all-conference stock shot up right when needed. He was scorching...shooting 71% from behind the arc and that step back mid-range game was unstoppable. To bad someone spilled a drink on his mom.

Hansbrough: A-
It was nice to see Tyler knock down a shot outside of the paint, which had been missing since the monster GT game. An all around solid night (as usual), but I wish he could have padded the stats a little in a blowout game.

Terry: A+
I felt like Terry wasn't on the floor much last night, although he actually only played 2.5 minutes less than his season average. Regardless, he made the most out of those minutes with 17 & 7.

Miller: B+
Not Wes' best game...only knocking down one three, but at least he kept his streak alive of hitting one per game. I would have given Wes a B, but that hustle play to chase down the fast break deserves a PLUS and proves why this guy is in the starting line up in what is shaping up to be a Top 10 type of team.

Frasor: A
Perfect from the field, an NBA deep three, and 8 assists. Probably could have had an A+ night...had we needed it. I was glad to see him get to rest some on the bench.

Sanders: B
Byron had a fairly non-eventful 15 minutes. Glad to see him get a bucket in his last game at the Dean Dome.

Green: A-
DG's production continues to impress. This guy comes of the bench, grabs boards, blocks shots, and can score. Last night he missed a couple of open threes that we'll need him to hit in tight contests...like Saturday's match-up promises to be.

Ginyard: A
Marcus Ginyard had another double digit scoring night to make it his third in a row. Glad to see he is on a roll.

Thomas: A+
About midway through the conference season this year I never thought I would feel this comfortable with QT playing significant minutes. Not only is he playing more, he is sparking runs and controlling the tempo. 7 pts, 4 asst, 0 to's. Now that is a solid PG stat line...in 16 minutes nonetheless.

Copeland: A
He must be real bad at defense if he isn't playing. Seems like he can really score the basketball. I wish he could have played a bit more last night, but at the sametime I am glad he didn't steal any of Byron's well deserved minutes.

First Post, Last Conference Game

2006-03-02T08:11:00.000-08:00

You might ask why I am starting this blog with only one regular season game to go (although it is a big 1). Well...I guess there is no better time than today to start something, so why wait until next year. Besides, Roy and the Tar Heels didn't wait until next season, so why should I.